Making REDD Functional in Nepal: Action Points for Capitalizing Opportunities and Addressing Challenges

Climate change is an emerging problem of global scale having deep impacts at local scale. Effects of global warming encompass all vital systems supporting world populations, namely, water resources, human health, agriculture, forests and biodiversity. Nepal is among the most vulnerable countries to climate change since the annual mean temperature growth (0.06 degree Celsius) is at least six times higher than the global average. High mountains are warming faster (0.08 degrees C per year) than lower hills and plains (0.04 degrees C per year). Fast receding glaciers and growing number and size of glacial lakes in the Himalaya provide strong visual evidence of global warming effects at local level. Higher rates of mean annual temperature in high altitude regions mean severe impacts on local natural resources and environment such as faster melting of snow deposits in the Himalayan peaks and glaciers, undesirable changes in forest and vegetation compositions, and many uncertainties on weather characteristics. Similarly, changes in forestry and vegetation systems have also been reported.

Under the business as usual scenario, the Fourth Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel and Climate Change (IPCC) projects that global mean temperature may increase between 1.4 and 5.8 C by 2100. This unprecedented increase has given rise to many uncertainties about the future natural processes including weather patterns and hydrological processes. Societies having poor development infrastructures and limited capacity are more intensely exposed to the risks of climate change. The report also warns that ‘no action’ is no more an option to both industrialized and developing nations. It is, therefore, important to analyse Nepal’s status of climate change impacts and policy measures for coping with the emerging challenges. The Bali Conference (UNFCCC COP 13) held in December 2007 was a milestone for forestry sector as it brought it into centre stage of climate negotiation through a new approach called Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation in developing countries (REDD). REDD approach entails the idea that a developing country which is experiencing deforestation (loss of area of forest e.g. through conversion to agriculture or through logging) may, on a voluntary basis, receive compensation if it reduces its national deforestation rate, in proportion to the amount of carbon emissions that are thus reduced.

Of the total annual global emissions of GHGs, nearly 20 % is contributed by deforestation and forest degradation. In this ground, the new international climate regime to make significant emissions reduction should address forest degradation and deforestation problems. Therefore, it is very likely that international consensus will emerge (at COP 15 in December 2009) to provide incentives to the developing countries willing to reduce deforestation and forest degradation. This is quite different from existing forestry policy under CDM, in which carbon credits are issued at a project level for planting of new trees. But REDD is still under discussion and may come into effect only after 2012. Climate change affects forest ecosystems (and consequently the livelihoods of the poor living in and around the forest) in many predictable ways. Global warming may cause forest modification through its migration towards the polar regions (or higher altitudes), changes in its composition, extinction of species, and the like. More than 70% of Nepal’s people depend on agriculture and forestry interface for their livelihoods. Forest covers about one-third of Nepal’s geographic area (5.8 million ha) and 21% of forests are under community management. Any climate induced changes in forest situation could therefore directly affect not only the environment of Nepal but also the lives of the majority of people.

Nepal’s situation is complicated by the huge altitudinal variations and diversity of forest types. Out of 39 vegetation zones, Nepal’s 15 forest types under existing CO2 conditions would be reduced to 12 under double CO2 conditions. Under this scenario, Nepal’s tropical wet forest and warm temperate rain forests would disappear, and cool temperate vegetation is likely to become warm temperate vegetation. Furthermore, vegetation patterns will also alter as a result of a 2oC temperature rise and 20% increase in rainfall. There is clearly a need for rapid adaptation to limit the effects of this on water resources, flooding, drought and landslides as well as to ensure continued access to forest resources and non-timber forest products.